unitednations
02-13 03:57 PM
Out of those 400K ....200K happen to be India/China...
Today's projection for me EB3/India is 7-10 years to get GC....
with a higher number this would come doen to 2 years ( would it ???)..That is the whole game...EB3 India might not become current but at least EB3 ROW would be current and then the spillover would make EB3 India picture much better....
Also AC21 allows the spillover to happen quarterly rather than annully...not in the fourth quarter..( Please correct me if I am wrong..)
Reference
http://www.fourmilab.ch/uscode/8usc/www/t8-12-II-I-1152.html#_a_
Look at a(3)
(3) Exception if additional visas available
If because of the application of paragraph (2) with respect to one or more foreign states or dependent areas, the total number of visas available under both subsections (a) and (b) of section 1153 of this title for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who otherwise may be issued such a visa, paragraph (2) shall not apply to visas made available to such states or areas during the remainder of such calendar quarter.
This is why I mean USCIS/DOS was lazy. If there is total visas for the year (hypothetical 160,000). then only 40,000 are available by quarter. If there is 50,000 applications in the que then there is retrogression. Remember if there is more demand then what can be approved by quarter then retrogression.
So what this means is that if there is 400,000 approved I-140's but only 300,000 greencards then 7% limit would apply because there are more people in the que then what can be approved by quarter. Therefore, ROW people would still be able to file throughout the year and then whatever is left in the fourth quarter that ROW hasn't used then it would spillover. Therefore, it would still give ROW people to continue filing and taking the visas while the 7% countires have to sit and wait for breadcrumbs until the fourth quarter.
Today's projection for me EB3/India is 7-10 years to get GC....
with a higher number this would come doen to 2 years ( would it ???)..That is the whole game...EB3 India might not become current but at least EB3 ROW would be current and then the spillover would make EB3 India picture much better....
Also AC21 allows the spillover to happen quarterly rather than annully...not in the fourth quarter..( Please correct me if I am wrong..)
Reference
http://www.fourmilab.ch/uscode/8usc/www/t8-12-II-I-1152.html#_a_
Look at a(3)
(3) Exception if additional visas available
If because of the application of paragraph (2) with respect to one or more foreign states or dependent areas, the total number of visas available under both subsections (a) and (b) of section 1153 of this title for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who otherwise may be issued such a visa, paragraph (2) shall not apply to visas made available to such states or areas during the remainder of such calendar quarter.
This is why I mean USCIS/DOS was lazy. If there is total visas for the year (hypothetical 160,000). then only 40,000 are available by quarter. If there is 50,000 applications in the que then there is retrogression. Remember if there is more demand then what can be approved by quarter then retrogression.
So what this means is that if there is 400,000 approved I-140's but only 300,000 greencards then 7% limit would apply because there are more people in the que then what can be approved by quarter. Therefore, ROW people would still be able to file throughout the year and then whatever is left in the fourth quarter that ROW hasn't used then it would spillover. Therefore, it would still give ROW people to continue filing and taking the visas while the 7% countires have to sit and wait for breadcrumbs until the fourth quarter.
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vkrishn
07-27 06:55 PM
Absolutely. To amway guys:- No means NO/NOT INTERESTED.. PERIOD.. I don't care whether you were flipping burgers or dream to become a millionaire. Do it yourself . Just don't harass people. Next time you will be arrested if you harass people.
Kushal,
This whole conversation was not intended to be personal and if it hurt you in any way then we all apologize ,most of the people here might be in or against amway/quixter but they are all more pissed of by the way they are harassed by so called IBO's with the way they treat their prospective clients.
Why not just move on if somebody says no or gives a excuse to the IBO's, if anybody does
really feel interested they will ultimately come back to you guys but why harass them with multiple calls and personal visits.
Note - I would be intersted to see your tax returns :-) email me please since you agreed to.
Kushal,
This whole conversation was not intended to be personal and if it hurt you in any way then we all apologize ,most of the people here might be in or against amway/quixter but they are all more pissed of by the way they are harassed by so called IBO's with the way they treat their prospective clients.
Why not just move on if somebody says no or gives a excuse to the IBO's, if anybody does
really feel interested they will ultimately come back to you guys but why harass them with multiple calls and personal visits.
Note - I would be intersted to see your tax returns :-) email me please since you agreed to.
Raghunadh Polavarapu
07-27 02:53 PM
Yes it is 1099-INT. "Amway bosses will not inform you..?..unauthorized?"...why don't you check your own braincells. Nobody is boss of anyone. Every business owner receives a proper TAX form with all declarations every year. Neither Murthy/Khanna/ or any corporate law offices are wrong. You should talk to them explicitly before commenting.
Your sorry ass has lot of excuses. Don't open your mouth on things you don't know.
With your attitude, you will not even become millionaire in Zimbabwean dollars.:D:D:D
Your sorry ass has lot of excuses. Don't open your mouth on things you don't know.
With your attitude, you will not even become millionaire in Zimbabwean dollars.:D:D:D
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amar123
07-03 11:18 PM
http://digg.com/politics/USCIS_Visa_scandal (http://digg.com/politics/USCIS_Visa_scandal)
Guys, we are all computer friendly unlike our previous generation,lets use the internet to the fullest.
Please dig the link so ppl understand the scenario and making the news sensational but true helps!! Please add your comments to the blog ,hopefully, comments not 2 frustrated or impolite. Remember we claim to be legal immigrants,lets show some refinement and class :)
Guys, we are all computer friendly unlike our previous generation,lets use the internet to the fullest.
Please dig the link so ppl understand the scenario and making the news sensational but true helps!! Please add your comments to the blog ,hopefully, comments not 2 frustrated or impolite. Remember we claim to be legal immigrants,lets show some refinement and class :)
more...
PlainSpeak
01-14 03:54 PM
PlainSpeak, go check my posts - I have only addressed your eb discussion issue, and nothing else. (If you decide to answer this post, multi-quote all my posts on this thread - lets see where I have abused you! - I have 4 posts of which one is a repeat)
If you had thought for a moment and seen that my previous posts got posted twice - you would have realized something amiss, or if you saw my last post you would have realized that it was not edited to remove anything! However, to you everything seems to be "out to get you" mode, and you talk of not attacking personally, and yet here you are!
Refrain from dragging parents and spouses (which country/era do you think I am living in to have spouses?) into this. If you call for civility, then you got to be civil first!
I don't know whether you are wasting your time, but I definitely am!
BTW, if you do not want to go ahead to share the details of making your plans work, in spite of some members asking, what is the point in your continued answers?
my friend willegtgc i am making an effort to be civil (and you go to be understanding about this). If i am talking in the context of everyone is about to get me that is because i have got so many abuses from 360 degress that it is hard to remember who was nice and non abusive and who was not
And yes that was spouse not spouses (I am sorry about that spelling mistake) but you did post a message which was a . which was in relation to another members query about whether i am a man/women or something else. Now a . is called a Point which is also a degrotary reference to a person who is neither a man or a women. Now please do not deny it because there is no way you can fight that accusation off. I think if i dig deep down i wil come across other abuses made by you but i regress from the point
Ok i have officialy got carpel tunnel syndrome.
If you think you are wasting your time please stop responding to this post. I am up to my neck trying to reply back to you everytime. This is so simple why can you not do it. Do not reply anymore to this post anymore and atleast youwil have a good night sleep
And do not even think of asking me about my plan. Where the heck do i have the time to write out anything concrete with people like you dissing me from every side. Now some one out here has asked me something similar and when i get time off from people like you (Yes YOU) i will get a chance to work on it and post it next.
May be this week end will be a very interesting time for a discussion or maybe not. So take my advise my friend.
If you get what i am saying i woul suggest there be no more posts from you, because beleive me i wil ignore your post. If you have some free time i would suggest you take some time and try to get my negetive count down. It is right now 4000.
You (Everyone at IV) keep asking new members to beleive in what they are doing and make an effort without looking at the result right? You keep asking me what i did till now for IV. Ok now here is your chance. Think about it.
PlainSpeak giving and impression of what willegtgc should be thinking instead
Maybe Maybe Maybe this person was handled in a wrong way. Maybe if i show some kind of respect for the idea and for the person maybe it will make this persons day because maybe this person was speaking sense and maybe this person has the guts to follow up on what was said if given a chance to write something concerete, so maybe i willgetgc will give him a chance...
If you had thought for a moment and seen that my previous posts got posted twice - you would have realized something amiss, or if you saw my last post you would have realized that it was not edited to remove anything! However, to you everything seems to be "out to get you" mode, and you talk of not attacking personally, and yet here you are!
Refrain from dragging parents and spouses (which country/era do you think I am living in to have spouses?) into this. If you call for civility, then you got to be civil first!
I don't know whether you are wasting your time, but I definitely am!
BTW, if you do not want to go ahead to share the details of making your plans work, in spite of some members asking, what is the point in your continued answers?
my friend willegtgc i am making an effort to be civil (and you go to be understanding about this). If i am talking in the context of everyone is about to get me that is because i have got so many abuses from 360 degress that it is hard to remember who was nice and non abusive and who was not
And yes that was spouse not spouses (I am sorry about that spelling mistake) but you did post a message which was a . which was in relation to another members query about whether i am a man/women or something else. Now a . is called a Point which is also a degrotary reference to a person who is neither a man or a women. Now please do not deny it because there is no way you can fight that accusation off. I think if i dig deep down i wil come across other abuses made by you but i regress from the point
Ok i have officialy got carpel tunnel syndrome.
If you think you are wasting your time please stop responding to this post. I am up to my neck trying to reply back to you everytime. This is so simple why can you not do it. Do not reply anymore to this post anymore and atleast youwil have a good night sleep
And do not even think of asking me about my plan. Where the heck do i have the time to write out anything concrete with people like you dissing me from every side. Now some one out here has asked me something similar and when i get time off from people like you (Yes YOU) i will get a chance to work on it and post it next.
May be this week end will be a very interesting time for a discussion or maybe not. So take my advise my friend.
If you get what i am saying i woul suggest there be no more posts from you, because beleive me i wil ignore your post. If you have some free time i would suggest you take some time and try to get my negetive count down. It is right now 4000.
You (Everyone at IV) keep asking new members to beleive in what they are doing and make an effort without looking at the result right? You keep asking me what i did till now for IV. Ok now here is your chance. Think about it.
PlainSpeak giving and impression of what willegtgc should be thinking instead
Maybe Maybe Maybe this person was handled in a wrong way. Maybe if i show some kind of respect for the idea and for the person maybe it will make this persons day because maybe this person was speaking sense and maybe this person has the guts to follow up on what was said if given a chance to write something concerete, so maybe i willgetgc will give him a chance...
user1205
02-12 05:09 PM
They need to pump up more numbers otherwise getting rid of quotas doesn't help much.
Per country quota sucks big time. DOL/USCIS needs to get rid of it ASAP.
Per country quota sucks big time. DOL/USCIS needs to get rid of it ASAP.
more...
poorslumdog
09-04 12:26 PM
Pappu,
You should have guts to reveal the ID of this Insider who is misusing his power to expose personal details of IV members.....Is this what what you mean maintaining confidentialty of Individual members????
You and me are just another free loaders. What IV is going to lose if move out. add some value before you start threatening.:D
You should have guts to reveal the ID of this Insider who is misusing his power to expose personal details of IV members.....Is this what what you mean maintaining confidentialty of Individual members????
You and me are just another free loaders. What IV is going to lose if move out. add some value before you start threatening.:D
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chantu
03-30 01:57 PM
Yes...We had them in power for five years. It was a joke. India was Shining and we had to wear sun glass.
I am not supporting the congress party. I am only supporting the MMS. To me, he is faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarr better than Mr.Advani or Mayavathi
SNathan, I know you are supporting MMS and not congress. But remember, it is not MMS govt it is congress govt. MMS is just an executive who will implement his boss's decisions. It happened during Narasimha Rao. It was Rao and not MMS who brought economy reforms. Also, India Shining was flop show and we had to wear sun glasses, but last 5 years of UPA was such a economic disaster that now even if we remove glasses we can see nothing but darkness.
Also please consider that during UPA rule, India's loss due to terrorism was next to Iraq. As Narendra Modi says, even if you are rich, own houses and cars and happy in life...but if you are not sure that at the end of day you will return home safely or not, then this money and richness is of no use.
I am not supporting the congress party. I am only supporting the MMS. To me, he is faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarr better than Mr.Advani or Mayavathi
SNathan, I know you are supporting MMS and not congress. But remember, it is not MMS govt it is congress govt. MMS is just an executive who will implement his boss's decisions. It happened during Narasimha Rao. It was Rao and not MMS who brought economy reforms. Also, India Shining was flop show and we had to wear sun glasses, but last 5 years of UPA was such a economic disaster that now even if we remove glasses we can see nothing but darkness.
Also please consider that during UPA rule, India's loss due to terrorism was next to Iraq. As Narendra Modi says, even if you are rich, own houses and cars and happy in life...but if you are not sure that at the end of day you will return home safely or not, then this money and richness is of no use.
more...
nomi
09-29 01:19 PM
Hi Kukitron and all,
I am having a new h1b with validity 7/2009. But My Visa expired by Aug,2006. Please clarify, can i travel from canada to Seattle thro Road with the expired visa and the new h1b which contains a valid I-94
Thanks
Sundar
Yes you can according to following rule
http://travel.state.gov/visa/laws/te...ams_1441.html#
There are lot of condition which you need to follow in order to use this Law. That`s why I am asking other people about it and see how many people use it and what they said about it.
I am having a new h1b with validity 7/2009. But My Visa expired by Aug,2006. Please clarify, can i travel from canada to Seattle thro Road with the expired visa and the new h1b which contains a valid I-94
Thanks
Sundar
Yes you can according to following rule
http://travel.state.gov/visa/laws/te...ams_1441.html#
There are lot of condition which you need to follow in order to use this Law. That`s why I am asking other people about it and see how many people use it and what they said about it.
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tradahoo
10-25 02:54 PM
Hi,
I want to know if it's permissible to pursue full time education immediately after getting an employer sponsored green card. And if not, how long should I work for the sponsored employer before getting to full time study?
Thank you.
I want to know if it's permissible to pursue full time education immediately after getting an employer sponsored green card. And if not, how long should I work for the sponsored employer before getting to full time study?
Thank you.
more...
greencard_fever
07-23 12:02 PM
USCIS is already did the ground work required to Use up all the left over visas. I am assuming based in the following theory
1) We have seen in the past in USCIS director interview ( i do not have the link for this) that USCIS and DOS is working closely ( This was lacking in the past) to approve as many cases as they can to use maximum VISA number.
2) By looking at the approvals from last 4 months, who ever i know whose PD's were current got their GC's.This indicates that USCIS is working efficiently then it was before to Use up all the VISAS.
3) Lastly i assume that DOS was moving the dates for EB2 consistently for last three visa bulletins and we all know that for August (last Quarter) it has moved by 2yrs+ (DOS and USCIS waited till last quarter to do this which makes more sense),I believe the reason behind this to use all the Visa Numbers and approve as many cases as they can.
This what i am assuming by looking at the recent VB movement and GC approvals.
1) We have seen in the past in USCIS director interview ( i do not have the link for this) that USCIS and DOS is working closely ( This was lacking in the past) to approve as many cases as they can to use maximum VISA number.
2) By looking at the approvals from last 4 months, who ever i know whose PD's were current got their GC's.This indicates that USCIS is working efficiently then it was before to Use up all the VISAS.
3) Lastly i assume that DOS was moving the dates for EB2 consistently for last three visa bulletins and we all know that for August (last Quarter) it has moved by 2yrs+ (DOS and USCIS waited till last quarter to do this which makes more sense),I believe the reason behind this to use all the Visa Numbers and approve as many cases as they can.
This what i am assuming by looking at the recent VB movement and GC approvals.
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MYGC2008
09-14 03:50 PM
Do we know the exact Approved EB2 Labors for INDIA. (Year 2005 means Oct 2004 to Sept 2005). because PERM is introdiced in mid 2005.This is Critical
Also I have a question: Does Prevailing Wage Level determine the EB Category? (EB2 Prevailing Wage Type = Level II) If this assumption is correct then for 2006 (Oct 1 2005 to Sept 2006) there are 11000 approved EB2 INDIA Labors.
Also I have a question: Does Prevailing Wage Level determine the EB Category? (EB2 Prevailing Wage Type = Level II) If this assumption is correct then for 2006 (Oct 1 2005 to Sept 2006) there are 11000 approved EB2 INDIA Labors.
more...
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JazzByTheBay
12-13 05:54 PM
...actually makes sense...
jazz
When an argument is held in the Supreme Court you often hear the justices asking "What if" type questions, some of them verge on being narrow circumstances, but to declare something unconstitutional can have a wide impact and is a fundamental, so it should account for odd circumstances too.
So here goes a potential set of arguments:
Q> What if the Congress was unable to discriminate in other categories of immigration based on nation of birth? Would that mean that in time of war, immigrants would have to be admitted from a country with whom we were at war?
Q> Would Congress no longer be permitted to try to balance the ethnic makeup of the country?
I agree it is unfair on individuals, on groups, and it does smell, but I doubt that it is unconstitutional. I take the pragmatic view in my prior post on this thread (many posts back).
Extending my pragmatic view:
Even if it were found to be unconstitutional, then Congress can always amend the constitution, and if a Supreme Court ruling affected more than just EB category, then I would not be surprised to see an amendment. Then the only advantage would be to draw attention to the issue. But you know that the anti's would just make the argument --- "Look the evil immigrants are trying to write our immigration policy", and that would be an easy argument to make so then we would see something more restrictive in the end.
So even if we won, we would likely loss.
Just being pragmatic.
(I'm not a lawyer - and my H1B enforces this)
jazz
When an argument is held in the Supreme Court you often hear the justices asking "What if" type questions, some of them verge on being narrow circumstances, but to declare something unconstitutional can have a wide impact and is a fundamental, so it should account for odd circumstances too.
So here goes a potential set of arguments:
Q> What if the Congress was unable to discriminate in other categories of immigration based on nation of birth? Would that mean that in time of war, immigrants would have to be admitted from a country with whom we were at war?
Q> Would Congress no longer be permitted to try to balance the ethnic makeup of the country?
I agree it is unfair on individuals, on groups, and it does smell, but I doubt that it is unconstitutional. I take the pragmatic view in my prior post on this thread (many posts back).
Extending my pragmatic view:
Even if it were found to be unconstitutional, then Congress can always amend the constitution, and if a Supreme Court ruling affected more than just EB category, then I would not be surprised to see an amendment. Then the only advantage would be to draw attention to the issue. But you know that the anti's would just make the argument --- "Look the evil immigrants are trying to write our immigration policy", and that would be an easy argument to make so then we would see something more restrictive in the end.
So even if we won, we would likely loss.
Just being pragmatic.
(I'm not a lawyer - and my H1B enforces this)
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timberlake
09-04 04:17 AM
What you have mentioned is the only good thing Mr. Backstabbing Naidu did. rest of AP is like Hell except Hyd... Govt employees pensions on the edge to be removed... Power charges increased 600% .. He is a next to dictator... one has to bow to his party men the villages or cities ... even a simple activity needs his partymen's approval... This is what makes difference... any politician is a politician... just a diff how one interacts with ppl makes one like YSR. undoubtedly there are poor ppl who got benefited from him. land sale was intially started by Mr. Naidu...
Btw he just had 2 acres of land now he is king of 2000+ Crores... think about it also... AP media has yellow fever...
Btw I am from AP and i take side and i went through it...
on part of Corruption... there is corruption with any party and in all stages of govt... But he is far far far better than dictator naidu ... no one bothered for him when he was almost attacked during once by naxals... think about it...
btw _TrueFacts_ you also look into these facts before commenting... may be you just have TDP/eenadu _YellowFacts_...
Btw he just had 2 acres of land now he is king of 2000+ Crores... think about it also... AP media has yellow fever...
Btw I am from AP and i take side and i went through it...
on part of Corruption... there is corruption with any party and in all stages of govt... But he is far far far better than dictator naidu ... no one bothered for him when he was almost attacked during once by naxals... think about it...
btw _TrueFacts_ you also look into these facts before commenting... may be you just have TDP/eenadu _YellowFacts_...
more...
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dilipcr
06-12 07:03 PM
Grassley bill will not close the door for immigrants but will decrease substanially from 200k(H1+L1) to 80k. But retrogession will go down and those 80k will have less problem in getting green card. You can chose whether to allow unlimited L1 and 125K h1b and 10 to 15 years waiting time or allow 30K L1 + 50K H1b and 3 to 5 years waiting time in green card. Which option will be better for you? If your skills are not good certainly you will not want any restrictions. If your skills are excellent you will survive whatever restrictions they put. They cannot reduce H1b below 65k as that is a part of WTO. So there is no one can block H1b program.
Exactly what I had tried to express, you have succinctly put them in numbers. Thank you
Exactly what I had tried to express, you have succinctly put them in numbers. Thank you
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Googler
02-13 01:01 PM
The problem here not every country gets equal or equitable piece of pie. The probelm is Part of the pie gets thrown out and not given to people in the line because too many of them happen to be from one country.
How about facts? In 2006, Philippines received 23,733 EB visas, India - 17,169. No other country received more. China received 9,484.
http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/yearbook/2006/table10d.xls
One thing to note in this dicussion is that this reallocation to oversubscribed countries is far from seamless. If cutoff dates for oversubscribed countries are not moved up in the 3rd quarter (as opposed to the fourth quarter of the fiscal year), part of the pie DOES get thrown out, as it has in recent years 2003 (88.4K), 2004 (47,3K), 2006 (10.2k) [see 2007 Ombudsmans Report, p. 34 which gives the data for these years and going back to 1992]. This is absolutely infuriating since 2003-2004 these were also the years that largely created the present backlog of applicants with early PDs. How on earth can you justify throwing out 10.2K greencards in 2006 (FY 2007) EVEN AFTER the June 2007 greencard free for all??
How about facts? In 2006, Philippines received 23,733 EB visas, India - 17,169. No other country received more. China received 9,484.
http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/yearbook/2006/table10d.xls
One thing to note in this dicussion is that this reallocation to oversubscribed countries is far from seamless. If cutoff dates for oversubscribed countries are not moved up in the 3rd quarter (as opposed to the fourth quarter of the fiscal year), part of the pie DOES get thrown out, as it has in recent years 2003 (88.4K), 2004 (47,3K), 2006 (10.2k) [see 2007 Ombudsmans Report, p. 34 which gives the data for these years and going back to 1992]. This is absolutely infuriating since 2003-2004 these were also the years that largely created the present backlog of applicants with early PDs. How on earth can you justify throwing out 10.2K greencards in 2006 (FY 2007) EVEN AFTER the June 2007 greencard free for all??
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chiragmodi
09-28 07:18 PM
Is it mendetory to file AC21 if your job title and duties are identical in your new job???
Thanks.
Thanks.
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tikka
07-03 06:30 PM
85 and counting...
http://digg.com/politics/Rep_Lofgren_Issues_Statement_on_Updated_Visa_Bulle tin/who
and counting...
http://digg.com/politics/Rep_Lofgren_Issues_Statement_on_Updated_Visa_Bulle tin/who
and counting...
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GCard_Dream
02-12 01:48 PM
ROW = Rest of the World. It refers to countries other than India, China, Mexico, and I believe Philippines.
Can anyone explain me..
Can anyone explain me..
immi_seeker
09-15 02:39 PM
Here are my Estimate of pending EB2 India case for give years
<=2004 2000
2005 10000
2006 13000
2007(july) 5000
==============
Total 30000
==============
This number is very close to Ron Gocthers number prediction a few months back (minus sept approvals).
Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis - Page 6 - Immigration Information Discussion Forum (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/general-immigration-questions/8419-collaboration-on-visa-quota-data-analysis-6.html)
Pending as of 15 July 2009 145000
EB2 50000
EB3 94000
EB2India (2.4/3.5 EB2) 35714
We can use the LCA number and come close these numbers as well
2005
EB2 India LCA for 2005 = RIR (3000) + PERM (60% of 7290) ~ 7400
Assuming 20% abandon applicant we get = 5900
1.2 dependent per applicant give ~ 13000 I-485 applicantions
Assuming 10% approved in 2008 and 10% rejected/abandon I-485 and 5% cross-charageability we get => pending 10000 pending I-485 application for 2005
2006
India PERM applications = 18000
EB2 India PERM applications (60%) = 10800
Assuming 20% abandon applicant we get = 8640
1.2 dependent per applicant give ~ 19000 I-485 applicantions
Assuming 10% approved in 2008 and 10% rejected/abandon I-485 and 10% cross-charageability we get => pending 13000 pending I-485 application for 2006
So if we see spillover of more than 30K the date will move beyond July 2007.
Considering the slow economy that spill over is reasonable.
<=2004 2000
2005 10000
2006 13000
2007(july) 5000
==============
Total 30000
==============
This number is very close to Ron Gocthers number prediction a few months back (minus sept approvals).
Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis - Page 6 - Immigration Information Discussion Forum (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/general-immigration-questions/8419-collaboration-on-visa-quota-data-analysis-6.html)
Pending as of 15 July 2009 145000
EB2 50000
EB3 94000
EB2India (2.4/3.5 EB2) 35714
We can use the LCA number and come close these numbers as well
2005
EB2 India LCA for 2005 = RIR (3000) + PERM (60% of 7290) ~ 7400
Assuming 20% abandon applicant we get = 5900
1.2 dependent per applicant give ~ 13000 I-485 applicantions
Assuming 10% approved in 2008 and 10% rejected/abandon I-485 and 5% cross-charageability we get => pending 10000 pending I-485 application for 2005
2006
India PERM applications = 18000
EB2 India PERM applications (60%) = 10800
Assuming 20% abandon applicant we get = 8640
1.2 dependent per applicant give ~ 19000 I-485 applicantions
Assuming 10% approved in 2008 and 10% rejected/abandon I-485 and 10% cross-charageability we get => pending 13000 pending I-485 application for 2006
So if we see spillover of more than 30K the date will move beyond July 2007.
Considering the slow economy that spill over is reasonable.
sc3
09-23 04:16 PM
Did it occur for a single moment that if some one gets out of the line, the line gets shorter? F Y I, This is NOT about me. This is about every one here. I did not dream of this situation which directly favors some one today. Simply, Not many folks knew it was going to be this bad. Folks who knew, kept quiet telling people that its NOT that bad. There is NOT going to be a single solution that benefits every one involved here. Let it be recapture, country limits or advanced degree exemption. Choice is (y)ours. We can decide to be the frogs in the well and pull the next frog down or we can work on making this pitch which can be palatable to sensible people, who understand the magnanimity of the situation
I am sorry, but ends do not justify the means. By calling people frogs in a well trying to pull down others, you are shutting down valid arguments and concerns.
If the only mentality is that if one gets out of line, the line gets shorter, there are various ways to achieve it (For example: just go on a killing spree targeting all EB applicants). We need something that is acceptable to both the politicians and the immigrants.
I am sorry, but ends do not justify the means. By calling people frogs in a well trying to pull down others, you are shutting down valid arguments and concerns.
If the only mentality is that if one gets out of line, the line gets shorter, there are various ways to achieve it (For example: just go on a killing spree targeting all EB applicants). We need something that is acceptable to both the politicians and the immigrants.
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